Analysis of Gross Enrollment Ratio, Net Enrollment Ratio, and School Enrollment Ratio Trends at the Elementary School Level

. This investigates points to decide forecasts of the accomplishment of Net Enrollment Rates (APK), Immaculate Enrollment Rates (APM) and School Enrollment Rates (APS) for basic school instruction in Pati Rule, Central Java Territory. The quantitative information in this inquire about was gotten from the websites of the Pati Rule Instruction and Culture Office, the Central Java Central Insights Office


INTRODUCTION
Education plays a vital role in nation-building.Therefore, the birth of intelligence, skills, and even the character of a nation arises.The progress of a nation for some time to come will be determined by our current management of education.Therefore, all Indonesian citizens have the right to quality education according to the abilities of their children and are free regardless of socio-economic status, race, ethnicity, religion, and so on, to contribute human assets to this nation (Marisa et al., 2023).
Superior Human Resources (HR) are obtained from a well-functioning educational process.One of the crucial fields that is still being developed by the government to improve the standard of Indonesian society is education (Purnasari & Sadewo, 2021).However, in practice, society still hesitates to fully support efforts to improve the quality of education.
This indicates the existence of several obstacles in improving education standards, one of which is the low level of community participation in educational progress, one of the thirteen elements of socio-economic problems in society that hinder the improvement of educational quality (Rahmatin & Soejoto, 2017;Saputro & Mahmudi, 2020).
We know that every parent hopes their child will become a successful individual, able to receive a good education up to higher education.This cannot be denied because children are the biggest investment for parents and their families.Parents are obliged to send their children to formal education for at least nine years, starting from Elementary School to Junior High School, also known as basic education (Rachmawati, 2021;Purnasari et al, 2023).
The success of regional improvement depends on the quality of human resources.
Education can be a means to advance the quality of our human resources.Therefore, efforts to advance the quality of teaching must continue, starting from providing broad and simple teaching access to the public, to improving the quality and quantity of our current teaching and education framework (Purnasari et al, 2023).To determine how many people employ instructional education, you can look at the population based on school enrollment.
Determining school enrollment in a range usually requires several measurements, namely calculating the School Participation Rate, Gross Enrollment Ratio, and Net Enrollment Ratio.
In general, APK is a marker of teaching in a locale.APK capacity is a measure of the success of educational programs initiated by the government to provide various educational opportunities to the community (Mukhaiyar et al., 2022).APK consists of two types, namely net interest rate (APK) and pure interest rate (APM).GER is the ratio of the number of school age population attending school to the number of school age population attending school.NER can be in the form of a comparison of the number of school age population attending school with the number of school age population who are required to attend school and have no barriers to attending school.Factors that can influence the GER value include per capita use, individual poverty levels in a zone, student-teacher proportion, student proportion, and teaching budgets that prevent regional exchange.(Naharin et al., 2023).
APM is mostly used in measuring access to education because it considers the obstacles that the school-age population may face in attending school, such as poverty, distance to school, and school availability.is a better indicator.The Indonesian government has set a APM target of 99% by 2030.Achieving this goal requires continuous efforts from stakeholders in the country, including the government, society, and the private sector.Based on the summary data in Table 1, it is apparent that the trend of Primary Education Gross Enrollment Ratio (APK) in Pati Regency over the past 10 years, from 2013 to 2022, has experienced both declines and increases.From 2013 to 2014, there was a decrease of less than 1 percent.Then, from 2014 to 2015, there was an increase of almost 12 percent.Following that, from 2015 to 2016, there was a decrease of nearly 10 percent.Moving forward, from 2016 to 2017, there was an increase of 3 percent.
However, from 2017 to 2018, there was a decrease of 0.49 percent.Subsequently, from 2018 to 2019, there was another decrease of 8 percent.Then, from 2019 to 2020, there was an increase of 5 percent.Continuing, from 2020 to 2021, there was an increase of nearly 1 percent.Finally, from 2021 to 2022, there was a decrease of almost 2 percent.

Net Enrollment Ratio Achievement of Pati Regency 2013-2022
Below is the achievement of the Net Enrollment Ratio (APM) for Pati Regency from 2013 to 2022, presented in the following table: Based on the available data on the Net Enrollment Ratio (APM) achievement in Pati Regency from 2013 to 2022, it is noted that from 2013 to 2019, the APM achievement did not reach the national target, which is set at 99%.However, from 2020 to 2022, the APM achievement met the national target.Specifically, there were declines in the APM achievement from 2014 to 2015, from 2018 to 2019, and from 2020 to 2021.In the other years, there were increases in the APM achievement.

Capaian APS Kabupaten Pati 2013-2022
The following is the achievement of School Participation Rate (APS) for Pati Regency from 2013 to 2022, explained in the following table: From the data obtained from the School Participation Rate (APS) in Pati Regency from 2013 to 2022, it is noted that only in 2022 did the rate fall below the national target of 99%, reaching only 98.24%.The data shows fluctuations, with rates sometimes rising and sometimes falling.From 2013 to 2015, there was an increase, followed by a decrease from 2015 to 2016.Then, from 2016 to 2018, there was an increase again, followed by a decrease from 2018 to 2020.There was an increase from 2020 to 2021, but a decrease again from 2021 to 2022.
One way to study future conditions is by making predictions using trend analysis.
The results of trend analysis can be used as a reference for planning and accelerating the achievement of the set targets for APK, APM, and APS, as it will indicate in which year the set targets will be achieved after the calculation.Therefore, the Pati Regency government can plan and strive to accelerate the achievement of the goals for APK, APM, and APS.The Pati Regional Government is striving to increase the participation rate in primary schools.One of the efforts made is to implement free universal basic education (SD/SDLB).The purpose is to increase school participation rates, reduce dropout rates, and provide equal access to education in Central Java so that all citizens receive education according to their rights.
As far as the creator's research shows, research in the field of education using drift research is still rare, especially in the field of education in districts/cities in Central Java.
Therefore, the investigators conducted an audit on the "Pattern of Gross Enrollment Ratio

METHOD
The research conducted utilized a mixed methods approach, particularly an informative one.A quantitative investigative approach was used to analyze the achievement patterns of primary schools in Pati Regency, Central Java.After obtaining the information gathered, we proceeded to use a subjective inquiry strategy to acquire more indepth and comprehensive data regarding the Gross Enrollment Ratio (APK) and Net Enrollment Ratio (APM) in Pati Regency, Central Java.

Type of Research
This research applies a descriptive quantitative approach and utilizes method analysis by analyzing secondary data.

Time and Location of Research
The research was conducted from September to November 2023.The research location was at the Department of Education and Culture of Pati Regency in Central Java Province.

Population and Sample
The population in this research implementation is the information regarding the Gross Enrollment Ratio (APK), Net Enrollment Ratio (APM), and School Participation

Trends Analysis
The available information is quantitative in nature; thus, a regression analysis is utilized to analyze the information.The procedure for examining the information involves using a regression investigation (least squares strategy) with the equation = a + bX.Analysts employ reduction, summarization, organization, focusing on fundamental aspects, and searching for topics and designs (Widyastuti, 2021).Linear equation using the least squares method by William N. Dunn ( 2003) is Y = a + bX.

Y = periodic data or trend values over a specific period a = constant b = regression coefficient (average rate of increase in trend values each year)
x = period (day, week, month, or year) Characteristics of the least squares method include setting the parameters where X must sum to 0. When calculations require specific values within the time variable (X) so that the total value of the time variable is zero or This research utilizes APK and APM data from 2013 to 2022.Therefore, X in this study uses a scale where X = 1 year.

Intuitive Model
The method of analyzing information by intuitively demonstrating,

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
This research aims to discover the expected patterns of the Gross Enrollment Ratio (APK), Net Enrollment Ratio (APM), and School Participation Rate (APS).The results obtained in this study are based on the calculations of deviations in the Gross Enrollment

APK, APM and APS Trends in Pati Regency
APS APM APK

(
APK), Net Enrollment Ratio (APM), and School Participation Rate (APS) at the elementary school level in Pati Regency".Based on the description provided, this question concerns: 1) determining the estimated success of APK, APM, and APS for primary school level learning in Pati Regency.2) Analyzing regulations based on anticipation of the emergence of APK, APM, and APS to improve teaching cooperation rates at the primary school level.3) Serving as a reference for the Pati government to expand APK, APM, and APS in Pati.
Rate (APS) inPati Regency, Central Java.The selection of tests in this thought process employs a cluster testing strategy.It involves selecting clusters from the Gross Enrollment Ratio (APK), Net Enrollment Ratio (APM), and School Participation Rate (APS) tables in Pati Regency from 2013 to 2022.

Figure 3 .
Figure 3. Trend of Gross Enrollment Ratio (APK) in Elementary Schools in Pati Regency

and
School Participation Rate (APS) in Pati Regency from 2023 to 2032 have been achieved and surpassed the government target of 99%; 2) The average prediction trend for APK from 2023 to 2032 is 103.44%, the normal APM trend from 2023 to 2032 is 100%, and the normal APS trend from 2023 to 2032 is 99.53%; 3) The prediction trend for APK in Pati Regency from 2022 to 2032 will experience a decrease, with a decrease of 4.21% from 2022 to 2032; 4) The prediction trend for APM in Pati Regency from 2022 to 2032 will increase, as evidenced by the increase from 2022 to 2032 by 5.88%; and 5) The prediction trend for School Participation Rate (APS) in Pati Regency from 2022 to 2032will increase, indicating an increase of 1.31% from 2022 to 2032.Based on the research findings, the analyst identified shortcomings and obstacles in this study.Therefore, the analyst provides the following conclusions: 1) Analyzing each rural area to ensure that all segments of society can access education according to their age; 2) Increasing the

We can see the participation rate in education in an area by looking at the indicators of the
Ratio, and School Enrollment Ratio Trends at the Elementary School Level Volume 4, Number 1, March 2024 -Journal of Educational Learning and Innovation (ELIa) |

Table 2 . Net Enrollment Ratio Achievement for Primary Education in Pati Regency for the Years 2013-2022
Resource:Data BPS Jawa Te-20222013-2022

Table 4 . Trend of Gross Enrollment Ratio in Elementary Schools in Pati Regency (Processed Results)
in elementary schools in Pati Regency is decreasing.Here is the graph of the predicted Gross Enrollment Ratio (APK) in elementary schools in Pati Regency.

Table 5 . Trend of Net Enrollment Ratio in Elementary Schools in Pati Regency (Processed Results)
From the table above, it can be observed that the deviation of the Net Enrollment Ratio (APM) at the elementary school level in Pati Regency from 2023 to 2032 is expanding compared to the period from 2013 to 2022, showing fluctuations that tend to increase and decrease.Therefore, the expectation for the Net Enrollment Ratio (APM) at the elementary school level in Pati Regency tends to increase, with slight decreases expected in 2025-2027 and an increase again in 2028 until 2032.It can be concluded that the Net Enrollment Ratio (APM) is slanted at the elementary school level in Pati Regency.The educational landscape in Pati is progressively evolving.Here is the anticipated graph of Net Enrollment Ratio (APM) in elementary schools in Pati Regency.

Table 6 . Trend of School Participation Rate (APS) in Elementary Schools in Pati Regency (Processed Results)
Participation Rate (APS) in elementary schools in Pati Regency is rising.Here is the predicted figure of APS in elementary schools in Pati Regency.Figure 5.

Trend of School Participation Rate (APS) in Elementary Schools in Pati Regency
Based on the research results, it is found that the Gross Enrollment Ratio (APK), Net Enrollment Ratio (APM), and School Participation Rate (APS) in elementary schools in